Happy Hollywood award season everyone! With the Academy Awards happening this Sunday night, I thought I’d bring you my picks for what I expect to happen on Oscar Night. Feel free to follow along with us here at Duck on a Rock, make your own picks, or just sit back and enjoy the show! I give you my predictions for what I think will win, as well as what I have seen and if I feel anyone or a film was snubbed. Onto the picks!
Best Picture: If I had a say, I’m going with “Dune: Part Two.” It should have run away with this win, but unfortunately, with the film coming out in March, it hurt its chances, along with the fact that they have now announced that “Dune: Messiah” will wrap up the series. Look for the Academy to honor that one when it’s released. Likewise, the fact that “Wicked” has already been announced as having a part two, “Wicked: For Good,” coming out later this year, could bode well for that film at next year’s Oscars. While “Conclave” has started to pick up steam, winning Best Ensemble at the SAG’s and Best Feature at the BAFTA’s, I expect “The Brutalist” to win. Could Anora also shock on the big night and pick up the big win? With the Best Picture award, anything is possible.
Will Win: “The Brutalist”
Should Win: “Dune: Part 2”
Best Director: Typically Best Picture and Best Director go hand in hand. While the Academy has deviated in the past, I don’t see that happening this year. Partly why I don’t see “Conclave” winning Best Picture is because its director, Edward Berger, was not nominated. While Sean Baker could win for “Anora,” (he did win the Director’s Guild which is a strong indicator), I expect Brady Corbet to take the honor for his 3-and-a-half hour epic.
Will Win: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Should Win: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Best Actor: I would have thought that until recently Adrien Brody had this locked up for his role in “The Brutalist.” However, with Timothee Chalamet winning the SAG award (an award that votes closely with the Oscars) I fully expect Chalamet’s portrayal of a young Bob Dylan to put him over the edge and crown him the youngest Best Actor winner ever, beating fellow nominee Brody.
Will Win: Timothee Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Should Win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Best Actress: I think this is Demi Moore’s award to lose. Hollywood loves a comeback story, and what better ending for Moore in arguably her best role. True, the Academy does not tend to honor horror movies, but Moore’s performance will be talked about for a long time. Mikey Madison had been picking up steam for “Anora,” and Cynthia Erivo could easily be back here next year for “Wicked: For Good.” But expect Moore to win.
Will Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Should Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Best Supporting Actor: I’m still upset Denzel Washington didn’t score a nomination for “Gladiator II,” but I digress. Kieran Culkin is fantastic in “A Real Pain,” and he should add to his trophy case an Oscar. Too bad it comes at the expense of his TV brother Jeremy Strong, playing Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice.”
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Should Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Best Supporting Actress: Here’s where we get to the first real controversy of the night. Zoe Saldana is the frontrunner in this category for her role in “Emilia Perez.” While she is incredible in the role, one could argue that she should be nominated for Lead Actress and her costar, Karla Sofia Gascon, should be in this category. Likewise, Ariana Grande could just as easily be categorized as a co-lead of “Wicked,” (she could realistically end up getting nominated as a lead actress in the sequel next year). That being said, I expect Saldana to continue her run and win.
Will Win: Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Perez”
Should Win: Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Perez”
Best Original Screenplay: This one is tough. I could realistically see it going to any of the five nominees (“Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Real Pain,” “The Substance,” “September 5”). I can see the Academy honoring Sean Baker’s “Anora” here, to make up for him not winning Best Director and Picture. Plus, he won the Writer’s Guild, a strong indicator of Oscar success. I would love to see “A Real Pain” win, a story about two cousins coming together and traveling to Poland to see where their grandmother grew up.
Will Win: “Anora”
Should Win: “A Real Pain”
Best Adapted Screenplay: Similarly, I can see “Nickel Boys” winning here, as it also won the Writer’s Guild award. I would like to see “Conclave” win, as the story kept me guessing right up until the end.
Will Win: “Nickel Boys”
Should Win: “Conclave”
Best Cinematography: While I could see “The Brutalist,” picking up the win here, I think “Dune: Part 2” should win. The shots here are simply breathtaking, from the enormous mountains of sand on Arrakis, to the black and white homeworld of the Harkonnens. Even though Part 1 also won this award, the Academy should honor this one as well.
Will Win: “Dune: Part 2”
Should Win: “Dune: Part 2”
Best Film Editing: This one is tough. “Conclave” should get it, but I can see the Academy honoring “The Brutalist,” which ran over three hours. Though one could argue that more could have been edited out!
Will Win: “The Brutalist”
Should Win: “Conclave”
Best Production Design: While the Academy could reward the land of Oz, I would like to see “Conclave” take it simply for the fact that they constructed sets of the Vatican. Watching the film, you would think that they were able to film inside of it!
Will Win: “Wicked”
Should Win: “Conclave”
Best Costume Design: Again, any of the 5 nominees could end up winning, “Wicked,” “Nosferatu,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” and “Gladiator II.” However, getting to see some of the iconic outfits repurposed in “Wicked” should be enough to put it over the edge.
Will Win: “Wicked”
Should Win: “Wicked”
Best Sound: I think Dune takes this. Sound is such an important part of the story that it is almost like a character itself.
Will Win: “Dune: Part 2”
Should Win: “Dune Part 2”
Best Makeup: I think “The Substance” takes this. Just from the few clips I’ve seen makes this a worthy winner, though “Wicked” or “A Different Man” could pull through as well.
Will Win: “The Substance”
Should Win: “The Substance”
Best Original Score: The fact that the score from “Challengers” wasn’t nominated still blows my mind, (I thought Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross were shoo-ins). I’m going with Conclave’s score, as it added to the suspense of the movie. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if “Wicked” takes this one.
Will Win: “Wicked”
Should Win: “Conclave”
Best Original Song: If Elton John hadn’t just won five years ago for his biopic “Rocketman,” I would’ve predicted he would win here tonight. I think this might be the year that Diane Warren finally breaks through and wins her first Oscar, after being nominated a record 16 times with no win!
Will Win: Diane Warren, “The Six Triple Eight”
Should Win: Elton John, “Elton John: Never Too Late”
Best Visual Effects: I believe that “Dune: Part 2” takes this. Much like the sound is a character, the visual effects are also a character that adds layers to the story. While I could see “Wicked” also winning this, I think this is Dune’s to lose.
Will Win: “Dune: Part 2”
Should Win: “Dune: Part 2”
Best Documentary Feature: This could be wide open. I’ll vote for “No Other Land,” as it deals with the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Will Win: “No Other Land”
Should Win: “No Other Land”
Best Animated Feature: While I could see “Inside Out 2” winning, I think “Flow” wins here. A virtually silent film from Latvia, it has cleaned up at other awards shows, and I expect it to do the same here.
Will Win: “Flow”
Should Win: “Inside Out 2”
Best Live Action Short Film: In this category, I like “I’m Not a Robot,” as it has a concept vital to what we are experiencing in today’s world: what if we are robots?
Will Win: “I’m Not a Robot”
Should Win: “I’m Not a Robot”
Best International Feature Film: I’m torn here. While I do think “Emilia Perez” will end up winning, I think the controversy surrounding its lead actress and the film itself will be too much to overcome (Zoe Saldana will still win supporting actress). If the Academy chooses to not honor this film, expect them to go with “I’m Still Here.” This film from Brazil has garnered much support, as well as a surprise win at the Golden Globes for Best Actress. If any film were to beat “Emilia Perez,” it’s this one.
Will Win: “Emilia Perez”
Should Win: “I’m Still Here”
